Introduction
Since the emergence of "toying" quotes there has been a lot of discussion recently about whether Darth Sidious threw the fight or not, but from what I saw most of those "toying" quotes (which are also disputed) are only dealing with the lightsaber fight itself and not with the latter part during the force lightning exchange. I am gonna talk about both instances and will try my best to explain why I believe that Mace Windu did in fact legitimately defeat Darth Sidious.
Lightsaber duel
I am gonna talk about this one less extensively as evidence is heavily contradicting. But lets go to the beginning of the fight.
The fight starts by Darth Sidious jumping out and killing 3 Jedi Masters (Saesee, Kolar and Fisto) with utter ease but we have sources which claim that they were caught off-guard and by a surprise.
Star Wars Lightsabers: A Guide to Weapons of the Force explains it further by saying that Darth Sidious applied Dark Haze which seems to cause temporary confusion. This allowed him to quickly take out the weaker Jedi.
But this begs the question of why didn't Darth Sidious simply take out Mace Windu first since he was aware that he was the biggest threat. If Palpatine's plan from the beginning was to set up this fight as a show then surely taking out the most powerful opponent and then "toy" with someone weaker would make way more sense as leaving the most powerful foe could foil his plan. The film itself answers this question.
While every other Jedi looked disorientated Mace Windu was able to react and raise his guard before Darth Sidious even initiated his attack, so we can conclude that the effect of Dark Haze on him was minimum. There is further evidence that not everyone was equally affected as we can see that Fisto was able to block some of Palpatine's strikes which suggests that he was less affected than Kolar and Tiin.
As we can see Fisto is somewhat able to resist its effects as Sidious wasn't able to instantly cut him down like he did so with Kolar and Tiin so its safe to assume that he couldn't have instantly killed Mace Windu who was prepared before he even launched his attack.
Even so, after Fisto is cut down Mace is being pushed back and the duel is stated to be fierce.
The Official Star Wars Fact File (relaunched-2014) explains what happened next. Mace is being pushed back as he was trying to find a still point in himself that would allow the Force to flow. But by the time the duel reached the open area of Chancellor's office it is said that Mace was able to find the inner peace he sought, and once that happens it is stated that Windu is starting to have advantage "Slowly, slowly, Mace Windu began to bear down on Darth Sidious"
Mace Windu seemed to be hindered and out of focus for the early part of the duel which could be explained by the Dark Haze which was mentioned earlier. He was pushed back until he was able to let the force flow and once that happened the duel immediately started to look more even with Mace slowly gaining advantage.
In case you didn't know, toying quotes originate from The Official Star Wars Fact File (which are later copy-pasted into its successor Fanhome Encyclopedia) which is the same source which I have been describing the fight so far. Continuing on, it is stated that at some point during the fight, Palpatine was starting to give the ground. This is where "toying" could have started but it is also stated that Mace was aware of this; "Mace was careful, knowing not to trust that his opponent was truly on the back foot." and "Still Mace was wary. Had the reversal been too simply gained?"
Most of the toying quotes are also from the same source which is as mentioned The Official Star Wars Fact File, and almost all of them attribute only certain parts of duel as toying and not the entirety of it "in anticipation of Anakin Skywalker, Palpatine was willing to allow himself to be disarmed to be more vulnerable" - This quote doesn't contradict that Mace could have been winning until this point (as he is stated to have gained advantage before Palpatine started to give the ground). Palpatine sensed that Anakin was coming and obviously wanted to play the victim card instead of appearing like an aggressor.
I would question this entire source (and latter Fanhome Encyclopedia which has the exact same quotes) as being credible as it has many contradicting parts including the non canon material within (It describes Legends characters and events). While I am not in a possession of its successor Fanhome Enyclopedia I don't doubt that it also has conflicting counts about this fight. Going back to The Official Star Wars Fact File it states that Palpatine was toying, that Mace was aware of this and also this: "Only the intervention of Anakin Skywalker saved Darth Sidious"
This quote is quite opposite of the view that Palpatine was toying, was in total control and had everything planned out. I would take this entire source including the latter Fanhome Encyclopedia (which copy-pasted some of the quotes from the Fact File) as to be unreliable and not to be trusted. In any case if you are to trust this source anyway despite the conflicting accounts, Mace is stated of being aware of being "toyed" with, and the fight itself is portrayed mostly as even.
Other sources which don't have such contradictions portray the conclusion to the fight in a very different way.
Star Wars Geektionary states that Mace Windu turned the duel in his favor and that he was the only one to defeat Darth Sidious in a duel.
Skywalker: A Family at War states that Palpatine was actively resisting "Palpatine was far from meekly accepting his fate." and that his fate was in Mace Windu's hands.
Furthermore after Mace Windu disarms Palpatine, Anakin still isn't there. Sheev is basically alone for roughly 5 seconds and held at the blade point.
Palpatine is not only unarmed during this moment but also shows his back to his opponent which if Mace wished so is essentially a free kill for him. But at this point Mace is still trying to arrest him (something which Palpatine couldn't have been sure about). In other words if Palpatine was "toying" he was gambling massively here whether Windu will try to arrest or instantly kill him. Doesn't sound like he is in a total control here, does it?
There are a lot more sources which are saying that Palpatine was forced into corner, that Windu gained the upper hand and that he was out of control which I won't be posting here as I believe these are sufficient.
CONCLUSION TO THE LIGHTSABER DUEL
Between the majority of reliable sources and the few unreliable The Official Star Wars Fact File and its successor Fanhome Encyclopedia quotes (which directly copy-pasted a lot of its content from the Fact File) its clear that Palpatine was on the losing edge. Even if you choose to believe the unreliable Fact File it states that Mace was aware of "toying" so its not a real "toying" then is it? Furthermore Mace Windu has statements that put him at Yoda and Anakin level in sabers, so its unreasonable to think that Palpatine can easily defeat him here.
Lightning exchange
Now this one is quite clear and undeniable so I am gonna go straight out with this one. Mace Windu overpowered and defeated Darth Sidious who was going all out, and had Anakin not intervened he would have been dead.
The evidence is just overwhelming but first lets start with the moment where Darth Sidious fires his lightning at Mace. Windu is not only blocking but deflecting it back which is a lot harder to do.
In episode IX, Rey who is powered by All the Jedi is only able to block it at first. It takes her some time (roughly 50 seconds) and only starts to deflect it back (which then deforms and kills Palpatine) once Palpatine is overpowered. Mace is able to deflect it back almost instantly in comparison.
Now I know a lot of you would say that Rey fought a much more powerful Darth Sidious but it doesn't matter because Rey was also being powered by All the Jedi. In any case I only used this as an evidence to show that deflecting Force Lightning is much harder than simply blocking it.
Now we come to the question whether Palpatine was holding back with Force Lightning or not. The evidence undeniably says that he indeed went all out. I am going to split this into a few segments:
What evidence is there that Darth Sidious went all out?
1. Statements
2. Disfigurement
3. Sith eyes
1. Statements
Star Wars Annual2015 states that Palpatine was desperate and that Windu used his own strength against him which is a textbook example of being overpowered.
The Prequel Trilogy Stories states that Palpatine was using Force Lightning to try to defeat Master Windu.
2. Disfigurement
Was Palpatine disfigured or not? Current Disney canon is overwhelmingly in favor that he was. First lets read Star Wars Databank description of the Force Lightning itself:
As we can see Star Wars Databank confirms that Force Lightning can indeed cause disfigurement. This begs the question of why wasn't Maul, Dooku or even Luke disfigured? There is an answer for Maul.
Star Wars Absolutely Everything You Need To Know states that Darth Sidious used his force lightning to torture Maul rather than to kill him. Dooku on the other hand we know has much weaker Force Lightning so that might be the reason of why he wasn't deformed in Dark Disciple. For Luke there is no such clear answer only theories. We know that Luke is very powerful and is able to tank ROTJ Palpatine's force lightning for very long time so this might be the reason. Other reason could be that Palpatine was hitting him all over the body and not just face/upper body. In any case a lack of answer doesn't in any way contradict that the Force Lightning is indeed able to cause disfigurement as per Databank.
Another popular theory is if Palpatine is deformed in The Rise of Skywalker, surely that means that it was his "True Form". The answer is that we don't know. There is no official answer to this so we can only theorize about it but not more than that. Once again the lack of answer doesn't contradict the disfigurement.
I saw other arguments such as Son of Dathomir and other comics already show Palpatine being disfigured so that means its his "True Form" all along. Matt Martin was asked about this many times and he always thought that this isn't a contradiction. I have one such scan of a conversation right here.
As we can see Matt Martin doesn't see this as his "True Form" being confirmed but rather calls it "artistic license" and that it looks "too much post-lightning" I don't think we ever saw Darth Sidious already beeing deformed pre ROTS in any LA or animated shows such as TCW so I share Matt's view.
Moving on, I am now gonna show all the different canon scans which say that Darth Sidious disfigured himself with his own lightning. Warning tho, this section is gonna be long.
Star Wars Absolutely Everything You need To Know states that Palpatine was hiding his disfigured appearance in Imperial propaganda broadcasts.
This is further confirmed in The Star Wars Book which calls undeformed version of Palpatine a "propaganda"
Next scans will share the same idea that Darth Sidious was disfigured by his own lightning.
And there are probably more which I have yet to locate. But 13 different scans should be enough to prove without a doubt that Darth Sidious was indeed deformed by his own lightning. Some of these scans like Skywalker a Family at War and Star Wars The Dark Side Pocket Expert came after The Rise of Skywalker so once again his face looking that way is not a contradiction in any way.
If you still somehow don't believe these then the film also gives direct indicators that Palpatine was hurting himself. We can clearly see here a smoke coming from Palpatine which indicate electrical burns.
3. Sith eyes
During the sequence with Darth Sidious firing his force lightning and Mace deflecting it back we can see Palpatine's eyes are changing color from his regular blue ones to yellow and finally red. But what does this mean? Why did they change? First I'll post the screenshots when this happens.
Here we can see his eyes are regular blue color.
Here we can see that his eyes are now becoming yellow.
Until they finally turn red.
Fortunately I have found the evidence which explains why did this happen.
Star Wars Absolutely Everything You Need To Know states that embracing the dark side makes your eyes change the color.
Star Wars: The Visual Encyclopedia goes further and says that rage and anger change the Sith eye color. We know that rage and anger make the Sith more powerful so we can conclude that since Darth Sidious was using these emotions while using Force Lightning on Windu that he was going all out.
Conclusion
While the lightsaber duel itself is somewhat arguable whether Mace won or Sidious threw, I think we can all agree that Mace indeed won as I have already shown here that Palpatine was out of control right after being disarmed (for roughly 5 seconds) and the fact that the "toying" quotes directly originate from The Official Star Wars Fact File (Fanhome Encyclopedia just reused them) not only contradicts itself about this very fight but it also contains Legends characters and events. Furthermore it makes no sense that Palpatine was toying with sabers only to blast Mace with full powered lightning a moment later. If you still choose to believe The Fact File then you must also know that Mace was aware of being "toyed" and that the lightsaber duel was portrayed as mostly equal.
I believe that other more reliable sources which have no such contradictions are better at explaining of what really happened in which case Mace Windu undeniably won in the saber fight.
Regarding the lightning exchange I believe its pretty undeniable at this point and we can conclude after everything I presented that Palpatine went all out and that Mace was able to successfully defend against his strongest attack and injure Palpatine in the process. Now could Palpatine have continued his lightning? Yes. But he would continue to injure himself until he kills himself (which is what happens in episode IX). Besides, Anakin was right there to help him so no point in killing yourself if he could lend his hand.
So there we have it. This took way too long but I think we finally have a clear picture. Mace indeed won and had Anakin not intervened Palpatine would have been dead.
P.S And yes there are about 10 or so quotes which say that Anakin's intervention was indeed required and what saved Palpatine, which I didn't include here because I believe that the post is already long enough. But if someone wishes I can add those later.
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